A change of scenery.
Sometimes that’s all a ballplayer needs to unlock his true potential or rebound from a disappointing season. Joining a new team gives a player an opportunity to wipe the slate clean and adopt a fresh mindset. As we look ahead to the 2020 season, let’s examine which players will benefit most from their new surroundings.
Dylan Bundy
Bundy’s been through a lot in his baseball career. He was the fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft, made his MLB debut in 2012, then underwent Tommy John surgery and ended up missing three full seasons due to injury.
He’s never realized the promise he held as a prospect, and over the last three seasons he’s surrendered home runs at an alarming rate. Despite his struggles in Baltimore, the Angels viewed Bundy as a rotation upgrade and acquired him via trade in December. With all he’s endured over the last decade, it’s easy to forget that Bundy is still just 27 years old.
So why might Bundy benefit from the move to Orange County? As bad as his traditional stats were with the Orioles, other metrics suggest his stuff should yield better results. The biggest hurdle Bundy has to overcome is diminished fastball velocity, which no doubt contributed to his home run tendencies. A more encouraging development is that he ranked in the 86th percentile in both opponent hard-hit percentage and fastball spin rate, and that just two of the dingers he allowed came off of curveballs.
Now that he’s no longer pitching most of his games at hitter-friendly AL East ballparks, Bundy should allow fewer roundtrippers. Pitching for a potential contender rather than a 100-loss Orioles team may also give him extra motivation.
Manuel Margot
The splits tell the story when it comes to Margot. The outfielder recorded drastic platoon splits in 2019, batting .330 with an .886 OPS against lefties compared to .200 with a .620 OPS against righties. His overall offensive numbers for the Padres were decidedly underwhelming, but they might have been more impressive had he been used in a platoon.
The Rays traded for Margot in February, presumably because they were attracted to his elite defensive capabilities in center field. Even so, his 2019 numbers indicate that he can be more than just a late-inning defensive replacement.
Margot’s success against southpaws makes him a viable option to start whenever the Rays face a left-handed hurler. If the majority of his plate appearances come against lefties, he could be in for a breakout season. He’s also an elite player in terms of Sprint Speed, so don’t be surprised if he steals at least 20 bags for a second straight year.
Marcell Ozuna
No player was more unlucky than Ozuna in 2019. His batted ball profile shows that he should have been one of the top hitters in the majors, and yet his season slashline did not meet expectations. In fact, among hitters with at least 450 plate appearances last season, Ozuna had the largest gap between his expected batting average (.284) and actual batting average (.241).
His stock dropped as a result, and following two seasons with the Cardinals, Ozuna signed a one-year, $18 million deal to return to the NL East as a Brave.
At 29 years old, Ozuna is still in the prime of his career. He’s also just a few seasons removed from a 2017 campaign that saw him hit .312 with a .924 OPS. Now he’ll look to follow the same path as Josh Donaldson, who parlayed a bounceback season in Atlanta into a multi-year free agent contract. Even if Ozuna fails to repeat Donaldson’s level of excellence, he’s a good bet to return to form in 2020.
Blake Treinen
If you need an example to illustrate the volatility of relievers, look no further than Blake Treinen. The righty went from posting a 0.78 ERA in 2018 to a 4.91 mark the following season. That downturn in performance led to Treinen being non-tendered by the A’s last winter. He was subsequently snatched up by the Dodgers, who signed him to a one-year, $10 million contract.
The biggest question mark with Treinen is his health: he dealt with both shoulder issues and a season-ending back injury in 2019. An injury-free Treinen throws a devastating sinker, and the Dodgers are hoping he’ll display his mastery of that pitch once more.
Kenley Jansen remains the Dodgers closer, so Treinen may not be asked to finish games all that often. Assuming a role with less inherent pressure could help Treinen adjust to his new surroundings and regain his former dominance.
Didi Gregorius
As a Yankee, Gregorius managed the nearly impossible task of replacing Derek Jeter and winning over a rabid fanbase with sky-high expectations. Although he was a perfect fit in the Bronx, Gregorius suffered a major setback in his final year before free agency.
The shortstop missed the first two months of 2019 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, and his production declined when he returned.
Gregorius signed a one-year, $14 million deal with the Phillies this offseason, officially ending his five-year tenure in pinstripes. It’s a worthwhile gamble for Philadelphia, and not just because the shortstop’s slight-uppercut swing should play well at Citizens Bank Park.
The affable Gregorius will be reunited with Joe Girardi, and his familiarity with the former Yankees skipper should help him feel at ease in the City of Brotherly Love. And, as he demonstrated in the Bronx, Gregorius possesses the even-keeled demeanor necessary to thrive in an often hostile sports environment.
Searle’s Final Say
If years of watching baseball have taught me anything, it’s that players who have been written off can still flourish when placed in the proper environment. Even if that player is coming off an unproductive season, matching up with the right manager and home ballpark can make a world of difference. A change of scenery may not always lead to an uptick in performance, but it does grant the player the freedom to reinvent himself and move on from his past struggles.
