The Cain Comparison

Picture this: An All-Star center fielder in his early thirties hits free agency just a few years after leading his club to a World Series championship. This player draws interest from several teams, including the Mets, who hope to strengthen their defense up the middle.

The above description could be applied to George Springer, who, at 31 years old, is a free agent for the first time. The former World Series MVP is an alluring target for obvious reasons. Already one of the top postseason hitters in the game’s history (19 home runs in 63 career postseason games), Springer is also an above-average defender and skilled baserunner. Springer has sat atop the Astros lineup since 2015, where he’s made a habit of starting games with home runs. 

Springer is not the only player in recent memory to fit that profile, however. If a World Series champion center fielder hitting free agency in his thirties sounds eerily familiar to Mets fans, it’s because the same scenario unfolded with Lorenzo Cain just a few years ago. In 2018, the then 31-year-old Cain was one of the available players rumored to be on the Mets’ radar. Cain went on to sign a five year, $80 million contract with the Brewers. He flourished in his first season with the Brew Crew, finishing seventh in MVP voting, and won a Gold Glove for his efforts in center field the following year. Cain’s contributions helped lead Milwaukee to consecutive postseason appearances for just the second time in franchise history. 

As for the Mets, they’ve now gone several seasons without a true center fielder; their limited payroll under the Wilpons prevented them from filling a gaping hole.

Springer’s Player Profile

Now that the Wilpons are gone and Steve Cohen is in charge, the Mets have a chance to rectify the mistake they made in passing on Cain. Other than his age (thirty is no longer considered young in baseball), Springer seems like an obvious fit in Queens. He’s a proven performer on the game’s biggest stage, and as a Connecticut native and UConn graduate, he has roots in the Northeast. Like everyone else associated with the 2017 Astros, Springer became embroiled in the controversy stemming from the team’s sign-stealing scandal. The Astros’ actions were a stain on the game, and there is still some lingering bitterness towards Springer for his role in the scheme. 

But Springer doesn’t need to know what pitch is coming to succeed. In the abbreviated 2020 season, in which he presumably refrained from cheating, Springer finished in virtual ties in the AL in both wRC+ (146) and Fangraphs WAR (1.9). His batted ball profile showed no underlying signs of decline; he ranked in the majors’ 92nd percentile in Expected Batting Average and 95th percentile in Expected Slugging Percentage. If you’re concerned that Springer might have lost bat speed, take solace in the fact that he excelled against high velocity, batting .361 with an .833 slugging percentage against pitches 95 MPH or faster this season. 

Searle’s Final Say

Much of the speculation surrounding the Mets’ offseason has centered around J.T. Realmuto. While signing an elite catcher would be a huge boost for the club, there are other ways to construct a championship-caliber team. George Springer is not much older than Realmuto (he’s entering his 31-season, compared to Realmuto’s upcoming age-30 season), and by all indications is still an elite player on both sides of the ball. As demonstrated by the Lorenzo Cain signing, acquiring an athletic center fielder who can slide into the leadoff spot is a recipe for success.