In case you hadn’t noticed, the Mets are cornering the market on former Twins pitchers this offseason.
After signing Trevor May to a two-year deal, the Mets signed another former Twins reliever, Trevor Hildenberger, to a minor league contract.
The Twins connection is no coincidence, but rather a result of Jeremy Hefner’s considerable outreach. Hefner currently serves as the Mets pitching coach, a role he assumed after spending 2019 as assistant pitching coach in Minnesota. Trevor May cited Hefner’s presence as one of his primary reasons for coming to New York, and other free agents may be swayed by him as well.
Analyzing Odorizzi
One such free agent is 2019 All-Star Jake Odorizzi. While the Mets are in pursuit of top arms like Trevor Bauer, Odorizzi is a decent back-end rotation option who can be had for a bargain.
Odorizzi’s free agency has largely flown under the radar because he ended 2020 with an ugly 6.59 ERA. A series of injuries, including a contusion caused by a batted ball to the chest, limited him to just 13.2 innings over four starts. But in the five previous seasons (2015-2019), Odorizzi was far more durable, averaging 30 starts and 165 innings per year.
Though he’s not known for his strikeout numbers (career-high 178 punchouts in 2019), Odorizzi’s fastball is vastly underrated. In his 2019 breakout season, the right-hander recorded 261 swinging strikes on four-seam fastballs, a total surpassed only by Gerrit Cole (344) and Lance Lynn (294). Curiously, Odorizzi ranked in the majors’ 23rd percentile in fastball velocity and 39th percentile in fastball spin rate that year.
If Odorizzi was below average in terms of fastball velocity and spin, how was he able to generate so many strikeouts on the pitch in 2019? Based on the available data, Odorizzi succeeded because of his location. According to Statcast pitch maps, Odorizzi threw 66 percent of his four-seamers in the upper third of the strike zone or higher, a rate exceeded by only four other pitchers (min. 500 four-seamers). When Odorizzi threw that pitch to that region, he held opposing batters to a .166 average and .309 slugging percentage.
The beauty of Odorizzi’s arsenal, however, is that he throws more than one type of fastball. In addition to his four-seamer, which he throws roughly 39 percent of the time, he also throws a split finger 28.4 percent of the time and a cutter 9.8 percent of the time. All three of those pitches worked wonders in 2019: while the four-seamer produced the greatest whiff percentage of those offerings (30.7%), his cutter and splitter actually produced lower slugging percentages and exit velocities.
Searle’s Final Say
Odorizzi is far from the sexiest name on the market, but he has decent command and an array of “out pitches” at his disposal. As the Mets learned in 2020, a league-average pitcher who eats up innings is an underrated asset — just imagine how differently the season might have gone had Rick Porcello (5.64 ERA) and Michael Wacha (6.62 ERA) been serviceable. Odorizzi pitched to an ERA+ of 109 from 2015 to 2019, and one would expect him to return to form next season.
A reunion with former mentor Jeremy Hefner would surely benefit the veteran righty, as would better luck in terms of health. For the Mets to enter 2021 with adequate pitching depth, they need to stock their rotation with consistent hurlers like Odorizzi.
