Marcus Stroman will be back in Queens next season, but the Mets are still in need of starting pitching. Trevor Bauer, the newly crowned National League Cy Young winner, is the free agent that fans have clamored for over the last few months.
This winter’s free agent class of starting pitchers is noticeably thin, with Bauer representing the only true ace in the bunch. Should Bauer sign elsewhere, the Mets will need to pursue other options to fill their rotation holes.
Every available starting pitcher has a critical flaw: Corey Kluber and James Paxton are injury prone, Masahiro Tanaka is solid but past his prime, and Jon Lester is coming off the worst season of his career.
Considering the dearth of options on the market, the Mets could do far worse than a pitcher who finished third in the AL Cy Young race in 2019. Though his age will give other teams pause, the Mets should pursue former World Series champion Charlie Morton.
Morton, who will enter his age-37 season in 2021, recorded a disappointing 4.74 ERA over nine starts for the Rays this year. The righty dealt with shoulder inflammation in August, and had previously been sidelined with a shoulder problem during the 2018 postseason. His health woes were reflected in his 2020 performance: he recorded his highest ERA, lowest strikeout rate, and lowest ground-ball percentage since his career revival with the Astros three years ago.
At first glance, Morton would appear to be on the decline. But he returned to form this past postseason, pitching to a 0.57 ERA (1 ER/15.2 IP) in his first three playoff starts before struggling in Game 3 of the World Series. Morton’s playoff bona fides are well known; in 2017, he became the first pitcher to win two Game 7s in a single postseason. Morton’s poise and veteran know-how would make a superb addition to a Mets staff that already includes two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom.
Key Stats
In years past, a sinkerball specialist would be a poor fit on the Mets, a team that has regularly finished toward the bottom of the league in Defensive Runs Saved and other advanced fielding metrics. The Mets showed signs of improvement in 2020, however, with their infield ranking sixth in the majors in Outs Above Average. With a strong defense behind him, Morton’s ground-ball proclivities could translate to a bounceback year.
Those who fear that Morton can no longer be effective should take heart in several of his underlying numbers. This season, Morton posted a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.45, suggesting that his inflated ERA may have been a small sample aberration. His curveball, a pitch he throws nearly a third of the time, also remained a powerful tool in his arsenal. Morton’s spin rate on the curve ranked in the majors’ 89th percentile in 2020, and he had 6.8 more inches of horizontal movement on the pitch than the average hurler. The veteran’s average velocity on both his two-seam and four-seam fastballs increased as the season progressed, and he saw a further uptick in velocity in the postseason. To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of Morton’s decline have been greatly exaggerated.
Searle’s Final Say
Morton had reportedly been mulling retirement, but his agent says he would like to pitch next season, preferably somewhere near his family home in Bradenton, Florida. While the Mets may not be his preferred landing spot in terms of geography, perhaps new owner Steve Cohen can convince him to help spearhead a new era in Queens.
