As a baseball researcher, I spend countless hours comparing and contrasting players. Whether I’m compiling a top 100 list or pouring over Baseball Reference pages out of curiosity, I am constantly employing statistical analysis to decide which players are the best in the sport.
Often, I am surprised to find that certain players who are not normally linked in the public consciousness have eerily similar stat lines. During the 2019 season, the following pairs were statistical doppelgangers.
Player A: .318/.384/.531, 23 HR, .384 wOBA, 143 wRC+
Player B: .314/.377/.503, 16 HR, .371 wOBA, 131 wRC+
In his first full season in the big leagues, Jeff McNeil (Player A) impressed by playing all over the diamond and leading the NL in batting average for much of the year. He also established himself as an elite contact hitter by striking out in just over 13 percent of his plate appearances. Squirrel’s breakout performance resulted in his first career All-Star selection. With 196 major league games under his belt entering 2020, it’s clear that McNeil’s excellence is no fluke.
Although McNeil was nothing short of brilliant, it is only fair to recognize that outfielder Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates (Player B) also emerged as a rising star within the Senior Circuit last season. Reynolds struck out more frequently than McNeil and was slightly inferior in terms of power, but nevertheless he posted a similar slashline and comparable rate stats. Reynolds did record a .387 BABIP last season, which would normally indicate that he’s due for some regression. However, he also ranked in the 94th percentile in expected batting average, which suggests that his high average was not solely attributable to luck.
While Jeff McNeil has a slightly longer track record, Reynolds’ skill set should also be appreciated by the baseball-consuming public.
Player A: 37 HR, .900 OPS, .377 wOBA, 132 wRC+
Player B: 35 HR, .899 OPS, .373 wOBA, 132 wRC+
Do you have any inkling who these two players are? The first won an MVP award in the AL East, while the other currently resides in that division.
Player A is Josh Donaldson, who signed a four-year, $92 million deal with the Twins this offseason. And Player B is Trey Mancini, whose career year was overlooked because he toiled for the 108-loss Orioles.
The statistical similarity between these players highlights just how far Mancini has come since his first full campaign back in 2017. He’s increased his walk rate each year that he’s been in the majors while decreasing his strikeout rate over his last two seasons. As their 2019 stats show, Mancini and Donaldson are capable of being equally potent at the plate. What differentiates them is where they stand in terms of their respective careers.
Donaldson remains an intimidating presence at the dish, but at 34 years old he’s hardly a spring chicken. Mancini, on the other hand, is entering his age-28 season and may not have even reached his ceiling quite yet. Lefty starter John Means was the sole Orioles All-Star in 2019, but Mancini may soon represent Baltimore in the Midsummer Classic.
Player A: .276/.320/.477, .331 wOBA, 102 wRC+
Player B: .276/.300/.500, .329 wOBA, 103 wRC+
I don’t expect anyone to guess these players, especially since they don’t play the same position. Before 2019, Player A had a .632 OPS and just ten home runs over 291 games. He broke out in a big way last season, and, like many players, set a career high in homers (23). Meanwhile, Player B contributed 32 of the record 307 home runs hit by his team.
Player A is Christian Vazquez of the Red Sox, and Player B is Eddie Rosario of the Twins.
I find the comparison between these players to be illuminating, mainly because Rosario is viewed as the much more fearsome slugger of the pair. Moreover, Rosario appeared on 2019 AL MVP ballots whereas Vazquez did not.
Ultimately, Rosario stands out as the more legitimate power threat because he’s slugged a total of 83 homers over the last three years compared to the 31 hit by Vazquez. Rosario also fares much better than Vazquez in terms of expected slugging percentage, which further supports the idea that he’s more likely to maintain this level of production.
Simply put, Vazquez will need to repeat his 2019 performance to prove he’s a top offensive player at his position.
Player A: 3.26 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 1.04 WHIP, 1.0 HR/9, 5.0 fWAR
Player B: 2.87 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 1.08 WHIP, 0.9 HR/9, 4.4 fWAR
If you recognized the two anonymous pitchers listed above, there’s a good chance you’re a fan of Vanderbilt baseball. After all, both are former Commodores: Player A is Walker Buehler of the Dodgers, while Player B is Sonny Gray of the Cincinnati Reds. In addition to graduating from the same university, Buehler and Gray are also former first-round draft picks.
Perhaps the greatest difference between these two hurlers is public perception. Buehler is five years younger than Gray and considered one of the game’s most electrifying up-and-comers. He also plays for a Los Angeles-based team, which affords him more media exposure than if he pitched in the Midwest.
Despite a rocky tenure in the Bronx, Gray’s smooth transition to the Queen City proved that he can still be the ace of a staff. The righty was unfazed by the cozy dimensions of Great American Ball Park, posting a 3.05 ERA with just nine home runs allowed in his 16 starts at home. Gray’s bounceback campaign silenced his doubters and earned him a seventh-place finish in NL Cy Young voting.
Entering 2020, many analysts will list Buehler as a likely Cy Young finalist. He’s an excellent choice to compete for that honor, but don’t be surprised if Gray ends up in the Cy Young conversation as well.
Searle’s Final Say
The beauty of statistical analysis is that it strips away our biases and presents us with objective truth. The “eye test” can tell us a lot about a player’s aptitude, but often it fails to tell the full story. Comparing players with similar statlines is necessary because it helps us put a player’s performance into proper context. Perhaps more importantly, it allows us to understand how our perception differs from reality.
