Michael Conforto is a homegrown talent blessed with a gorgeous swing from the left side of the plate. He’s played in the World Series, made an All-Star team, and quietly established himself as a leader within the Mets clubhouse. In spite of all he’s accomplished, Conforto remains a relatively divisive figure among Mets fans.
So why, exactly, is Conforto not universally beloved by the Flushing Faithful? The answer is complicated, and it illustrates how soft-spoken players often fail to receive the recognition they deserve.
A World of Promise
While Michael Conforto has blossomed into a fine player, some still believe he’s fallen short of his full potential. When Conforto broke into the big leagues in July of 2015, the Mets were desperate for offense. A team that had been historically inept at run scoring was hoping to make a late-season push, and promoting Conforto straight from Double-A was just one of the transactions made by GM Sandy Alderson to remedy the issue.
Conforto held a world of promise, and with his whole career still ahead of him, fans could envision him winning a batting title or eventually becoming an MVP candidate.
The 2015 season saw Conforto perform well in a 56-game big-league sample, and his contributions down the stretch helped the Mets clinch an NL East division title. He continued to impress in October, holding his own by going deep off former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke in the NLDS and crushing two more homers in Game 4 of the World Series.
Keith Hernandez salivated over Conforto’s level swing on SNY broadcasts, and the rookie outfielder never seemed overwhelmed by the intense glare of the New York media spotlight.
Conforto was a star on the rise, and fans eagerly anticipated his continued development. But baseball is a humbling game, and reality set in during his sophomore season. After a blazing start to 2016, Conforto fell into a miserable slump that led the Mets to demote him to the minor leagues.
That demotion did not deter Conforto, who rebounded by earning his first All-Star selection the next season. And though that year ended abruptly due to a shoulder tear, he’s since recorded two solid campaigns.
Assessing his Production
By almost any objective measure, Conforto has been a highly reliable player over the last three years. He’s posted an OPS+ of 131 since the start of 2017, which means that his OPS has been thirty-one percent better than league average over that period. He’s also accumulated an fWAR of 11.1 in that span, which ranks thirteenth among outfielders with at least a thousand plate appearances.
As far as defense goes, Conforto has proven to be more than capable. Though he’s posted negative Defensive Runs Saved totals as a center fielder, he’s rated far better in the corner outfield positions. He also has better range than you might think. He ranked in the 90th percentile in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric last season, with only 19 outfielders exceeding his total of 6 OAA.
Conforto is not quite as valuable as other outfielders like Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, or Christian Yelich. But just because he’s been a few tiers below MVP level does not mean his production should go unnoticed. Both analytics and the eye test support the notion that Conforto is skilled at all facets of the game, including fielding and baserunning.
Streakiness and Lefty Struggles
The primary reason Conforto remains underrated is that he has yet to produce a season in line with his early career projections. Those who viewed Conforto as a future batting champion can point to his mediocre career .253 batting average as an example of how he’s fallen short of expectations. Last year also marked the first time that he had hit as many as 30 home runs and recorded as many as 90 RBI.
Conforto has been further criticized for his perceived streakiness and overall struggles against left-handed pitching.
All players experience ups and downs over the course of the season, so Conforto is not unique in that regard. Moreover, his 2019 splits suggest that this criticism may be overstated. Aside from a few notable slumps, Conforto was consistent on a month-to-month basis.
He struggled in June, slashing just .229/.303/.429 over 28 games that month. Otherwise, he was a noteworthy contributor, posting an OPS of at least .890 in March/April, May, July, and August.
It’s true that Conforto has endured some extended periods where he’s been held in check at the plate. Nevertheless, his keen batting eye allows him to draw walks even when he’s mired in a cold stretch. Indeed, a far bigger issue than these slumps is his relative ineffectiveness against left-handed pitching.
Lefties tend to neutralize his power, which presents a problem late in games. When Conforto strides to the plate with a man on base in the seventh inning or later, it’s almost a given that the opposing manager will summon a southpaw.
While Conforto’s career numbers against lefties are unimpressive, his 2018 season–in which he posted a respectable .803 OPS against southpaws–demonstrates that he can improve his performance in that area.
Putting Performance Into Perspective
Michael Conforto is a terrific ballplayer with a number of commendable attributes, including a tireless work ethic and steadfast demeanor. But he’s never been flashy, which is why many fail to understand just how valuable he is. Despite an underwhelming batting average and struggles against lefties, Conforto has performed like an All-Star in nearly every season he’s been in the big leagues.
The 2020 season could be a special one for Conforto, who has the chance to make some history. He currently has 109 career home runs, and with just 17 more he’ll move into seventh place on the Mets’ all-time home run list.
He’s also just 16 home runs away from passing Lucas Duda as the all-time home run leader at Citi Field.
When Conforto reaches these milestones, fans should recognize that they’re watching one of the greatest homegrown talents the franchise has ever produced. No player is flawless, and the benefits of having Conforto on the club far outweigh any drawbacks.
At 27 years old, he still has time to mature into a superstar. Even if he doesn’t, he’s a highly productive player whose contributions deserve to be appreciated.
