Steven Matz began his career in storybook fashion. When the Long Island native realized his childhood dream of playing for the Mets in 2015, he hit the ground running. The southpaw wowed in his major league debut, went undefeated in his first six major league starts, and even pitched in the World Series.
Five years after that brilliant introduction to the big leagues, Matz finds himself at a crossroads. The southpaw, once projected to be a permanent fixture in the Mets rotation, is a non-tender candidate following the worst season of his career.
A Career-Worst Campaign
There’s no getting around it: Matz was simply brutal in 2020. The lefty pitched to an abysmal 9.68 ERA over nine appearances (six starts), allowing 14 home runs over just 30.2 innings of work. Opposing batters hit .323/.369/.700 against Matz, a slashline that would make even Mike Trout jealous.
The underlying numbers aren’t much kinder to Matz. Nearly half the batted balls he surrendered were classified as “hard-hit” by Statcast, he ranked in the bottom five percent of the majors in opponent exit velocity, and his fastball and curveball spin rates were also well below league average. His most problematic pitch over the last few seasons has been his changeup: Matz has allowed 22 home runs on changeups since the start of 2018 — no other pitcher has given up more than 17 in that span.
A Silver Lining
If a positive can be taken from Matz’s 2020, it’s that his average fastball velocity was his highest since his 2015 rookie campaign. Matz averaged 94.4 MPH on his fastball, ranking fourth among left-handed starters behind Jesus Luzardo (95.4), Yusei Kukuchi (95.0), and former Cy Young winner Blake Snell (95.0). Of course, velocity is only part of the equation when it comes to fooling hitters, and Matz has struggled considerably with pitch location and sequencing over the last few years.
Matz, who turns 30 in May, is entering his final year of arbitration before he hits the free agent market next winter. MLB Trade Rumors predicts that he could earn up to $5.3 million in arbitration, which would be a slight increase from the one-year, $5 million contract he signed this past January. After his atrocious performance in the abbreviated 2020 season, a desire to move on from him would be understandable. But with a dearth of lefties on the current Mets roster, Matz should be given another shot at redemption.
Future with the Mets
Currently, the only lefty besides Matz in the Mets rotation is David Peterson, and the only lefty in the bullpen is Chasen Shreve (Justin Wilson is a free agent). Matz’s uptick in velocity suggests that he might succeed in the ‘pen, where he could be used as a long reliever. He’s been working with former Mets pitching coach Phil Regan in Port St. Lucie, and while no one is expecting The Vulture to perform miracles, his calming influence might help Matz return to respectability.
Searle’s Final Say
Steven Matz can help the Mets in 2021, but it will take more than mechanical adjustments to overcome his recent woes. Yes, Matz has been known to slow his delivery on breaking balls, thereby telegraphing which pitch he’s about to throw. More important than fixing that problem, however, is strengthening his mental fortitude. Matz displays his dejection through body language, slumping his shoulders and pouting when things don’t break his way. Going forward, he needs to take a page from Jacob deGrom’s playbook and learn how to maintain his poise when he doesn’t have his best stuff.
Is Steven Matz a lost cause? I’d venture to say no. But if he doesn’t right the ship soon, he’ll be just another pitcher who let a world of talent go to waste.
