This offseason, I’ve sized up shortstops, uncovered diamonds in the rough, and identified the most overrated hurlers on the hill.
Now that one of the game’s top third sackers has found a new home, let’s turn our attention toward third base. Below is a discussion of the best at the position, from the newest star in St. Louis to the elder statesman on the free-agent market.
Cream of the Crop: Nolan Arenado
If you had a Hall of Fame third baseman in his prime, would you pay $51 million for him to play for another team?
Most sane people would say absolutely not. But common sense did not prevail when the Rockies sent Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals for an underwhelming prospect package.
Don’t let the Rockies’ perpetual dysfunction give you the impression that Arenado is anything less than fantastic. He’s been the best defender at the hot corner since his debut in 2013, winning the Gold Glove every year that he’s been in the league. If Arenado is the modern incarnation of Brooks Robinson in the field, he’s somewhere between Chipper Jones and Eddie Mathews at the plate. Arenado has thrice led the NL in home runs, and from 2015 to 2019, he led the majors in RBIs by a wide margin (621 in that span, compared to the 538 of Edwin Encarnación).
Now that he plays his home games at sea level, one might expect a dip in offensive production. But Arenado profiles similarly to Matt Holliday, another MVP-caliber Rockies castoff who arrived in St. Louis at the age of 29 (Arenado turns 30 on April 16th). Holliday was a St. Louis success story, and — assuming his shoulder holds up — Arenado should be as well.
Arenado’s brilliance on both sides of the ball makes him the top third baseman right now.
A Close Second: Anthony Rendon
Rendon may not be a fan of the “Hollywood lifestyle,” but Orange County seems to suit him just fine.
In 2020, Rendon brought his act from D.C. to the West Coast, overcoming a slow start with the Angels to ultimately produce a .915 OPS over 52 games.
Rendon hits to all fields, possesses elite plate discipline, and is one of the few modern sluggers who puts the bat on the ball more often than he whiffs. Rendon has played eight major league seasons, and only twice has he accumulated at least 100 strikeouts.
As much as I like Rendon’s contact skills and yearly .900 OPS output, he is clearly an inferior defender to Nolan Arenado, and he lacks Arenado’s counting stats on offense. Fielding metrics like DRS and OAA also show that Rendon is trending downward defensively, so Arenado remains the best at the position.
What’s Glove Got to Do with It?
If I were ranking third basemen solely by defensive value, Matt Chapman might be at the top of the list.
Chapman was teammates with Nolan Arenado at California’s El Toro high school, and there are numerous parallels between the two players — namely, their stellar glove work at third base.
Chapman can pick it with the best of ‘em, as proven by his MLB-leading 81 Defensive Runs Saved since his debut in 2017. Offensively, he’s joined forces with first baseman Matt Olson (a fellow Gold Glove winner) to give the A’s power from both corner infield positions.
Chapman had the seventh-highest strikeout rate among all qualified batters last season, and his walk rate dipped as well. Even so, his combination of outstanding defense and clutch hitting have him third among all position players in bWAR (17.8) since the start of 2018, trailing Mookie Betts (21.2) and Mike Trout (20.2).
Best of the Rest
Two years ago, I would have certainly placed Alex Bregman second on the list. Bregman hits all pitches equally well, has the majors’ second-lowest chase rate over the last three seasons, and is great at barrelling up the baseball.
Bregman’s stats tell an impressive story, but I can’t quite overlook the Astros cheating scandal or the effect that sign stealing might have had on his final numbers. Until Bregman backs up his 2018-2019 stats with another MVP-quality campaign, he won’t top my list of best third basemen.
In San Diego, Manny Machado bounced back from a lackluster first season with the Padres to become an MVP finalist in 2020. The presence of the ultra-talented Fernando Tatís Jr. at shortstop takes some of the pressure off Machado, giving him a nimble infield partner who can help shoulder the load on offense. When Manny and Fernando are in the same lineup, San Diego boasts a swagger that most clubs simply cannot match.
Then there is José Ramírez, one of the few holdovers from the Cleveland team that reached the 2016 World Series and made two successive postseason appearances. Ramirez was an MVP finalist in 2017 and 2018, mostly struggled in 2019, and then roared back to prominence with a sizzling final 32 games in 2020. The switch-hitting Ramirez fares equally well from both sides of the plate (career .850 OPS vs. RHP, .845 vs. LHP) and is rated by Fangraphs as the majors’ best baserunner over the last three seasons.
I would also be remiss to exclude Justin Turner, who at 36 years old has shown no signs of slowing down.
Searle’s Final Say
Third base is a consistently underrated position in baseball — after all, only 17 primary third basemen have ever been enshrined in Cooperstown. The current third base crop is not quite as deep as the one at shortstop, but it does feature a possible future Hall of Famer (Arenado) and a host of other stars who regularly feature in MVP conversation.
