Greatness, thy name is Jacob deGrom.
The Mets ace is in pursuit of his third consecutive Cy Young Award, an achievement that would put him alongside the greatest hurlers to ever step foot on a major league mound. Only Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux (who both won four straight) have ever earned the award three straight times, while the late Tom Seaver is the only pitcher to collect three Cy Youngs in a Mets uniform.
Through his first nine starts of the abbreviated 2020 season, deGrom is once again a frontrunner to take home the award. As of September 12th, he leads the National League in ERA (1.67) and strikeouts (79), while ranking in the top three of the league in categories like WHIP, opponent batting average, and opponent OPS. With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, he’ll have three more starts to pad his résumé in the hopes of a three-peat.
There’s no doubt that deGrom is the best pitcher on the planet (sorry, Shane Bieber), but Trevor Bauer and Yu Darvish have posted similar numbers to this point. When the regular season officially comes to a close on September 27th, deGrom’s traditional stats may still be comparable to that of his aforementioned competitors.
Keeping It 100
Without the benefit of a 30+ start sample size to pull away from the pack, deGrom’s Cy Young chances may hinge on more advanced data. In fact, it is deGrom’s Statcast metrics that best demonstrate his superiority. Already a hard thrower, deGrom has become the hardest throwing starting pitcher in all of baseball in 2020, averaging 98.5 miles-per-hour on his fastball.
To put deGrom’s uptick in velocity into perspective, consider this ridiculous stat: in 2020, he leads the majors with 134 pitches with a velocity of 99 MPH or more. The next closest starting pitcher, Dustin May, has thrown 46 such pitches.
Of course, elite velocity on its own does not guarantee success on the mound. In addition to his increased velocity, deGrom has outdone his competition by inducing an insane amount of swings and misses. In his start against the Phillies on September 6th, deGrom dazzled by registering 35 swinging strikes in his seven innings of work. That swinging strike total was the highest by any pitcher in the majors since 2016, an astounding feat in its own right. Even more impressive was that deGrom tied the record for swinging strikes in a game since that data started being tracked in 2008.
“Whiffle” Ball
Causing batters to swing and miss with stunning frequency has been deGrom’s specialty, and could ultimately determine whether he wins the Cy Young. Whiff rate, which is calculated by dividing swings-and-misses by total swings, is a metric that illustrates just how frequently a pitcher misses bats. This year, deGrom has a National League-best 40.7 % whiff rate, which along with Shane Bieber’s 41.3 % mark would be the top percentages that Statcast has ever recorded in a single season. For easy comparison, consider that the league average whiff rate this season is 26.7 %. DeGrom also leads all pitchers in swinging strike percentage, a similar stat calculated by dividing swings-and-misses by total pitches. No matter how you slice it, deGrom has been the most difficult starter to make contact against this season.
When the 2020 MLB season comes to a close, Jacob deGrom will be among the top contenders for the NL Cy Young award. But while his ERA, strikeout total, and other traditional numbers will surely be exemplary, they may not be enough to distance him from his closest competitors. Ultimately, deGrom may have Statcast metrics to thank if he comes away with the three-peat.
