Welcome to awards week, when the Baseball Writers Association of America chooses the top rookies, managers, pitchers, and overall players for a given season.
This year is unusual in that the regular season lasted just 60 games, giving voters far less data to analyze.
We already know who the finalists are, but who will take home the hardware? Let’s assess the races for each of baseball’s top honors.
Rookie of the Year
AL Finalists
- RHP Cristian Javier, Astros
- OF Kyle Lewis, Mariners
- OF Luis Robert, White Sox
When it comes to the “eye test,” few players can match White Sox center fielder Luis Robert, who entered 2020 as the third-best prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline. Robert’s exploits in center field have already earned him a Gold Glove award, making him the first rookie to win a Gold Glove at any position since Nolan Arenado in 2013. “La Pantera” recorded seven Outs Above Average in his rookie campaign, which was tied for the major league lead.
At the plate, Robert led the majors with an average exit velocity of 109.2 miles-per-hour on his home runs. Robert’s pure athleticism draws raves, and for good reason. Raw talent, however, is not enough to be crowned the AL’s top rookie. Robert hit just .136 with one homer in September, leaving him with a season OPS+ (101) just barely above average. Fellow Rookie of the Year finalist Kyle Lewis also slumped down the stretch, but he outpaced Robert in average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage while posting an identical home run total (11).
The third AL finalist, Astros right-hander Cristian Javier, is the least likely to come away with the award. Javier replaced Justin Verlander (Tommy John surgery) in the Astros rotation, and allowed three earned runs or fewer in nine of his ten starts. His final 3.48 ERA was solid but unspectacular, and his relatively pedestrian strikeout rate (8.9 K/9) will likely hurt him in the voting as well.
Prediction: Kyle Lewis will win the award, by virtue of leading all rookies in runs, walks, and total bases. He’s also already been named the AL Rookie of the Year by the Sporting News and the AL Outstanding Rookie in the Players Choice Awards.
NL Finalists
- 3B Alec Bohm, Phillies
- 2B Jake Cronenworth, Padres
- RHP Devin Williams, Brewers
Devin Williams may have thrown just 27 innings, but in a 60-game season, that may be enough to give him the edge over his competitors. Williams’s signature pitch, a changeup called the “airbender,” was practically unhittable; batters went just 2-for-62 with 41 strikeouts against it. If Williams were to win the award, he’d become the first pitcher to be named Rookie of the Year without starting a game or recording a save.
Squaring off against Williams in this category are two infielders: Alec Bohm of the Phillies and Jake Cronenworth of the Padres. Bohm caught on fire at the end of the year and ended up leading NL rookies in average (.338), on-base percentage (.400), and slugging percentage (.481). He also excelled in the clutch, batting .452 (19-42 AB) with runners in scoring position. Cronenworth, who was acquired from the Rays in last December’s Tommy Pham trade, led all rookies with 22 extra-base hits. He played all over the infield for San Diego, logging ten or more games at second base, shortstop, and first base.
Prediction: Devin Williams is the favorite because his changeup was the most impressive pitch in the game this year. Bohm’s production was overshadowed by this team’s struggles, and Cronenworth lost his early momentum by slumping down the stretch.
Manager of the Year
AL Finalists
- Kevin Cash, Rays
- Charlie Montoyo, Blue Jays
- Rick Renteria, White Sox
This is the strangest competition of the year, if only because Rick Renteria has already been fired by the White Sox and replaced by Hall of Famer Tony La Russa. Just as he had with the crosstown Chicago Cubs, Renteria oversaw a rebuilding effort on the South Side before being ousted. Renteria led the Sox to their first postseason appearance since 2008, helming a team filled with explosive young talent like Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, and Eloy Jimenez. After finishing with a .447 winning percentage in 2019, the Sox rebounded with a .583 mark in 2020.
Like Renteria, Charlie Montoyo brought an unproven team back to the postseason following a multi-year absence. Just how inexperienced were Montoyo’s Blue Jays? They were the first team since the 1915 Phillies to reach the playoffs without a single player who had been in the majors for ten or more years. Montoyo’s former colleague, Kevin Cash, is a finalist for the third straight season. With Cash at the helm, the Rays recorded the best record in the American League despite leading the majors in offensive strikeouts. Credit Cash for expert bullpen management: Rays starters completed six innings in just nine of the team’s 60 games.
Prediction: This award is Kevin Cash’s to lose. Sure, many are still upset that he pulled Blake Snell in the decisive game of the World Series. But this is a regular season award, and Cash pushed the right buttons from July to September.
NL Finalists
- Don Mattingly, Marlins
- David Ross, Cubs
- Jayce Tingler, Padres
Don Mattingly’s Marlins endured the most chaotic season imaginable. Eighteen players tested positive for COVID-19 during an eight-day span in July, and only five Miami players spent the entire season on the active roster. Eighteen players made their MLB debut for the Marlins this year, and nearly a third of the team’s innings were pitched by rookies. Just a year after finishing with the NL’s worst record, the Marlins were able to finish above .500 for the first time since 2009.
Competing with Mattingly in this category are David Ross and Jayce Tingler. Ross managed several former teammates from the 2016 World Series champion Cubs team, and in this case, familiarity did not breed contempt. Under Ross, the Cubs spent all but one day of the regular season in first place. The team’s core four of Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, and Schwarber all underperformed dramatically (combined .205 AVG, .382 SLG), yet the team’s NL Central division title was never in doubt. Jayce Tingler, the third-youngest active manager in the majors, also impressed in his rookie managerial campaign. Tingler’s Padres had the most come-from-behind victories in the majors and ranked second in run differential behind the Dodgers.
Prediction: Mattingly will win as recognition of how he dealt with his team’s COVID outbreak. This decision will be somewhat controversial, as the Marlins made a risky decision by deciding to play a game in late July despite having three positive COVID tests.
CY YOUNG
AL Finalists
- RHP Shane Bieber, Indians
- RHP Kenta Maeda, Twins
- LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu, Blue Jays
With all due respect to the other finalists, it’s impossible to imagine anyone other than Shane Bieber being named the winner. Bieber was beyond brilliant in 2020, leading the majors in all three pitching Triple Crown categories: wins (8), ERA (1.63), and strikeouts (122). Batters put the ball in play on just 12.4 percent of his pitches, which, no surprise, was also the best among starters this year.
Dodgers castoffs Kenta Maeda and Hyun-Jin Ryu are also in the running for the award. Maeda kept opponents off the basepaths, pitching to a microscopic 0.75 WHIP. He also induced soft contact: his 24.7 % hard-hit rate was the lowest among American League pitchers. Last year’s NL Cy Young runner-up, Hyun-Jin Ryu, rebounded from a few rough starts with the Blue Jays by pitching to a 1.86 ERA over his last ten outings. Overall, Ryu surrendered just seven barrels on the 185 swings against him.
Prediction: Not only will Bieber win the award, but it will be a unanimous decision.
NL Finalists
- RHP Trevor Bauer, Reds
- RHP Yu Darvish, Cubs
- RHP Jacob deGrom, Mets
Can you believe that the Reds have never had a Cy Young winner? That streak may finally come to an end this year thanks to Trevor Bauer. Bauer led the NL with a 1.73 ERA, and his peripheral numbers show that his ERA title was no fluke. The righty also had the best xERA (2.17) in the majors, as well as the best rise and spin-rate on four-seam fastballs. If there is any knock on Bauer, it’s that all but one of his 11 starts came against some of the worst offensive teams in baseball.
Bauer faces close competition from division rival Yu Darvish and two-time reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, both of whom are looking to make history. Darvish looks to become the first Japanese-born pitcher to earn a Cy Young, while deGrom hopes to join Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson as the only pitchers to win three straight Cy Young crowns. Darvish allowed just five total runs in a seven-start stretch from July 31st to September 4th, but effectively blew his chances when he surrendered four runs against the Twins in his penultimate start. DeGrom somehow managed to up his game, recording the highest average fastball velocity in the majors and the highest single-season K/9 in NL history (13.8).
Prediction: This is the closest race of all the major awards, but Bauer’s ERA advantage will lead him to victory.
MVP
AL Finalists
- 1B José Abreu, White Sox
- 2B DJ LeMahieu, Yankees
- 3B José Ramirez, Indians
Surprisingly, both Mike Trout and Shane Bieber failed to make the cut. Instead, the AL finalists consist of two corner infielders from the Central and a Yankee set to hit the free agent market. The spiritual leader of the White Sox, Jose Abreu, led the American League with 76 hits and 60 RBIs. He also had 97 hard-hit balls, tops in the American League. Abreu generally flies under the radar, but this may finally be the year he’s rewarded for his consistency.
Indians third baseman José Ramirez is the most improbable of this year’s finalists; he was slashing just .230/.333/.450 through his first 26 games. From August 22nd onward he was a completely different player, putting together a slash line of .345/.431/.739 with 28 RBIs in his final 32 contests. Then there’s D.J. LeMahieu, who led the majors in average (.364) and paced the AL in OBP (.421), OPS (1.011), and wRC+ (177). LeMahieu, who also won a batting crown for the Rockies in 2016, is just the second player in history to win the batting title in both leagues.
Prediction: There is no obvious answer in this category, but Abreu will likely take it because he played all 60 games (LeMahieu played 50) and was more consistent than José Ramirez.
National League Finalists
- OF Mookie Betts, Dodgers
- 1B Freddie Freeman, Braves
- 3B Manny Machado, Padres
Before this year, the criminally underrated Freddie Freeman had never been an MVP finalist. It’s hard to argue that any NL player was more valuable than Freeman, though Mookie Betts could give him a run for his money. Freeman overcame an early-season bout with COVID to hit .341 with a major league leading 37 extra-base hits (23 doubles, 13 home runs, one triple), along with 53 RBIs. While the Braves first baseman put up eye-popping counting stats, Betts edged him in Baseball Reference WAR as a result of his elite baserunning and defense. In his first season with the Dodgers, Betts proved a perfect fit for Hollywood. The superstar right fielder recorded 11 Defensive Runs Saved, hit .439 with runners in scoring position, and even tied for third in the NL with 16 homers. Betts is looking to join the late Frank Robinson as the only players to win the MVP in both leagues.
Prediction: Freeman will narrowly edge Betts for the award because of his superior counting stats.
